Transforming the future: anticipation in the 21st century

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Transforming the future: anticipation in the 21st century

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Portions of a few of the chapters of this work appeared serially in The Criterionand the last chapter was published in The Smart Set.

While, so far as the author knows, this is the first book on the subject, it is given, perhaps, especial novelty by the fact that advantage could be taken of much new material given to the public for the first time with one exception in the last few months, notably: a revelation of windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers exact identity of Beethoven’s “Immortal Beloved;” the letters of Liszt to his princess; letters of Chopin long supposed to have been burned, as well as diaries and letters gathered by an intimate friend for a biography whose completion was prevented by death; the publication of a vast amount of Wagneriana; the appearance of a full life of Tschaikovski by his brother, with complete elucidation of much that had адрес страницы suppressed; the first volume of a new biography of Clara Schumann, with a detailed account of the whole progress of her beautiful windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers story, down to the day of the marriage; and numberless fugitive paragraphs throwing new light on affairs more or less unknown or misunderstood.

Musicians as lovers! The very phrase evokes and parades a pageant of amours! The thousand heartaches; the fingers clutching hungrily at keys that might be other fingers; the fiddler with his eyelids clenched while he dreams that the violin, against his cheek is the satin cheek of “the inexpressive She;” the singer with a cry in every note; the moonlit youth with the mandolin tinkling his serenade to an ivied window; the dead-marches; the windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers the amorous waltzes; the duets; the trills and trinkets of flirtatious scherzi; the laughing roulades; the discords melted into concord as solitude into the arms of reunion—these are music’s very own.

So capable of love and its expression is music, indeed, that you almost wonder if any but musicians have ever truly loved, or loving have expressed. And yet—! Round every corner there lurks an “and yet. Your first thought would be, that a good musician must be a good lover; that a broken heart alone can add the Master’s degree to the usual conservatory diploma of Bachelor of Music; that all musicians must be sentimental, if musicians at all; and finally that only musicians can know how to announce and embellish that primeval theme to which all existence is but variations, more or windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers brilliant, more or less in tune.

But go a little further, and closer study will prove that some of the world’s greatest virtuosos in love could neither make nor carry a tune; and that, by corollary, some of the greatest tunesters in the world were tyros, ignoramuses, or heretics in that old lovers’ arithmetic which begins: 1 plus 1 equals 1.

If you care to watch the cohort of musicians, good, bad, and worse, that I shall have to deploy before you, you shall see almost every sort and condition of love and lover that humanity can include. And incidentally—to tuck in here a preface that would otherwise be skipped—let me explain that in the following affairs I have preferred to give you the people as accurately as I can make them out. In place of the easy trick of stringing together a number of gorgeous fairy stories founded on, I have preferred the long labour of hunting down the truth and telling only what I have and believe to be true.

Fact and not fancy; presentation and not fiction; have been the aim throughout. Where the facts are sparse, I have not hesitated to say so; have not stooped to pad out gaps, with graceful and romantic imaginings; and have indeed never hazarded a guess or an inference without frankly branding it as such. Windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers, as far as space permits and documents exist, the musicians tell their own stories in their own words. For the making of this little book, I have not been able to include all the men who ever wrote one note after or above another; nor to read all the books ever published in all the world’s languages: and yet, that I have been decently thorough will appear, I think, in the list of books нажмите чтобы прочитать больше the back.

This does not claim to be a complete bibliography of the subject, but, omitting hundreds of books I have ransacked in vain, it catalogues only such works as I have consulted with profit, and the reader could consult with pleasure.

It may be well to say that, with the exception of the occasional necessity or seeming-necessity for taking one side or the other in a matter of dispute, I have avoided the facility of bandying highly moral verdicts and labelling these victors or victims of life with tags marking their destinations in the next world.

He who gets into another’s heart with understanding, will find it impossible to indulge in wholesale blame—” tout comprendre, c’est tout pardonner. And yet, the whole effort and viewpoint of the work will be found, I think, to be based upon a deep belief that one love is better than two, and that earnestness and honesty and altruism are more blessed and blissful, even with poverty and suffering, than any wealth of money, or of fame, or of amorous experience.

As a last chapter to this series of “true stories,” I have ventured to sum up the conclusions, to which the study of all these affairs has compelled me, and to state a general opinion as to windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers effect of music on character. It might have been more exciting to some readers, if I had started out with a hard and fast theory, and then discarded or warped everything contradictory to it, but it would have been a dishonest procedure for one who believes that musicians are neither saints of exaltation nor fiends of lawless адрес страницы but only ordinary clay ovens of fire and ashes like the rest of us.

He who generalises is lost, and yet I make bold to believe that the conclusion of this book is true and reasonable and in accordance with such evidence as could be collected. And now after this before-the-curtain lecture, it is high time, as Artemus would say, to “rise the curting. The very origins and traditions of the trade of music seem to enforce windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers certain versatility of emotion and experience.

Apollo, the particular god of music, was not much of a lover, and what few affairs he had were hardly happy; his suit was either declined with thanks, or, if accepted, ended in the death of the lady; as for himself—being a god, he was denied the comfortable convenience of suicide. She was punished with death indeed; but her son was Aesculapius. Which explains the medicinal value music has always claimed. Old Boetius—who had affection enough for both a first and a second wife—tells, in his treatise on music, many anecdotes of the art’s influence, not only upon sickness but upon wrathful mobs bent on mischief.

He quotes Plato’s statement that “the greatest caution is to be not to suffer any change in well-moraled music, there being no corruption of manners in a republic so great as that which follows a gradual declination from a prudent and modest music; for whatever corruptions are made in music, the minds of the hearers will immediately suffer the same, it being certain that there is no way to the affections more open than that of hearing.

The musician proverbially both download ms office full version bagas31 photoshop expression upon and is a lyre. Windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers instrument, as is well known, was first made out of a vacant turtle-shell, by Mercury, the god of gymnastic exercises and of theft, that is to say, of technic, and of plagiarism.

Mercury was nimble with his affections also; among his progeny was the great god Pan, who is frequently reported, and commonly believed, to be dead. Pan was so far from beautiful that even his nurse could not find a compliment for him, and in fact dropped him and ran. Considering what one usually expects of a new-born infant, Pan must have been really unattractive.

His lack of personal charm was the origin of the invention of Pan’s pipes or syrinx. Miss Syrinx of the Naiad family—one of the first families of Arcadia—was so horrified when Pan proposed to her, that she fled. He pursued and she begged aid of certain nymphs who lived in a houseboat on the river Ladon. When Pan thought to seize her, he found his arms filled with reeds.

How many a lover has pursued thus ardently some charmer, only to find that when he has her, he has but a broken reed! But Pan, noting that the wind was sighing musically about the reeds, cut seven of them with a knife and bound them together as a pastoral pipe. A wise fellow he, читать статью could profit even from a jilt.

The eminent musician Arion, the inventor of glee clubs—a fact which should not be cherished against him—seems to have loved no one except himself, and therein to have had no rivals. The famous fish story to the effect that when he was compelled to leap into the sea, by certain mariners, he was carried to shore on windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers back of a dolphin, is only Jonah’s adventure turned inside out. Another early soloist was Orpheus, the beautiful love story of whose life is common property.

The patron saint of Christian music, Saint Cecilia, had a remarkable married life, including a platonic affair with an angel; which caused her pagan husband a certain amount of natural anxiety. Geoffrey Chaucer can tell you the legend of her martyrdom with the crystal charm of all his poesy. The early Christian Church with its elaborate vocal worship accomplished much for the cause of music, but also, with its vast encouragement to the monastic life and to celibacy, coerced windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers great number of musicians to be monks.

This banishes them from a place here—not by any means because their being monks prevented windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers having love affairs, but because it greatly prevented a record of most of them—though happily not all. Sir John Hawkins, in his delightsome though ponderous history of music, tells of the disastrous infatuation of Angelus Politianus, who flourished in as a canon of the Church, and the teacher of the children of Lorenzo windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers Medici.

Being professor of eloquence at Florence, he unhappily became enamoured of one of his young scholars who was of an illustrious family, but whom he could neither corrupt by his great presents, nor by the force of his eloquence. The vexation he conceived at this disappointment was so great as to throw him into a burning fever; and in the violence of the fit he made two couplets of a song upon the object with which he was transported.

He had no sooner done this than he raised himself from his bed, took his lute, and accompanied it with his voice in an air so tender and affecting that he expired in singing the second couplet. Which reminds one of the actor Artemus Ward describes as having played Hamlet in a Western theatre, where, there being no orchestra, he was compelled to furnish his own slow music and to play on a flute as he died.

Some of these instances are simply hints, upon which the fervid imagination will spin imaginary love yarns in endless gossamer. Thus of Marc Houtermann — “Prince of musicians” at Brussels. All we know of his wife is from her epitaph. She died the same year he died—so we fancy it was of a broken heart she died; and she was only twenty-six at the time—so we can imagine how young and lithely beautiful she must have been.

Her name, too, was Joanna Gavadia—a sweet name, surely never wasted on an ungraceful woman; and on her tombstone she is windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers “pudicissima et musicis scientissima. Van der Straeten’s book is cluttered up with documents of musty interest. Among them are a number that gain a pathetic interest by the frequence of the appeals of musicians or their widows for a pittance of charity from the hand of some royal or ducal patron.

If there be in these democratic days any musician windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers feels humiliated by the struggle for existence windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers its necessities for wire-pulling and log-rolling and sly advertisement, and by the difficulty of stemming the tide of public ignorance and indifference, let him remember that at least he is a free man, and need lick nobody’s boots; and let him cast an eye upon the chronicles of shameful humiliation, childish deference, grovelling servility, and whimsical reward or punishment, favour, or neglect, that marked the “golden age” when musicians found patrons from whose conceit or ennui they might wheedle a most uncertain living.

Among the most pathetic of such instances is that of Josse Boutmy —court organist at Brussels, and famous in his day,—which was a long day. When he was at the age of eighty and the father of twelve children, he had to stoop to appeals for charity; again at ninety-seven he appeals.

At ninety-eight he pleads to be retired with a pension; at ninety-nine he dies. Three days after his death his son is asking a pension for the mother of that dozen children. She also writes a pitiful letter still preserved. Infirmities, the result of old age, and twelve children raised at great cost, to enable them to earn their bread, have left me at his death in indigence the greater since my son Laurent Boutmy, who for many years gave with approbation assistance to download windows 10 64 bit update 2022 father, in the hope of succeeding to his post, has been deprived of this boon by others.

Save for the tenderness of a daughter, who is herself hardly in easy circumstances, having a family, I should lack the necessaries of life. The infirmities, resulting on an age of seventy, passed in adversity and work, prevent me from gaining my own living. Van der Straeten says that her name was Katrina, that she came from Westphalia. Save a few titles of his works a few accounts of this pathetic struggle, this is all we know of poor Josse Boutmy and his old wife.

Then there is Jacques Buus, who makes various appeals for aid for his increasing family. A refreshing novelty in these annals of sordid poverty is given us of H. De Croes, court-organist at Brussels in the eighteenth century, who was forced to make an appeal for charity because the son whom he had sent abroad to study did not return to support his father, but decided to marry a woman he met at Ratisbon; it is pleasant to add that the appeal was granted. Adrian Couwenhoven, who died in Spain inpower point 2016 download for 10 there a widow, Ana Wickerslot, who implored the king to grant her money to go back home to Flanders with her children.

The Brebos family were famous organ-builders in the fifteenth century; they were famous marriers, too,—but one of them met his match, Jean, called to Spain, married there a widow, Marianna Hita, windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers one son. The widow outlived the husband and her son succeeded him in business. Gilles Brebos, the best organ-builder in Europe, according to his son, who ought to have known, married in Spain a woman who was also Flemish.

When he died she was a widow raised to the third degree, and she windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers compelled to appeal to the king for charity. Casada con tres criados de V.

These three were a royal mathematician, a captain in the royal navy, killed in the Flanders rebellions, and finally a windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers organ-builder.

We are not told what further royal alliances she achieved. Among the most famous of early Flemish musicians is Adrian Willaert ? We know nothing of Willaert’s life-romance, but he must have been happily married, for he made six wills before he died, and they are all preserved.

In every one of them he mentions his wife Susana, though he never gives her family name. In each of his wills he leaves her the bulk of his fortune; in the fourth will he says the last word in windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers by bequeathing his widow his fortune to enjoy whether she remarries or not.

As Van der Straeten says, “it appears that the affection the old man vows for his wife grows greater and greater the nearer the fatal day approaches. The most minute dispositions are made in her regard. Strangely enough Willaert never mentions either his compositions or his daughter Catharine, who was a composer, too. Perhaps this gifted daughter had a little romance of her own and found herself disinherited. One of the darkest of the royal English tragedies concerns a musician, one David Ricci or Rizzio, who was born at Turin, the son of a poor music-teacher, and who, when grown, managed to join the train of the Count de Moretto, then going as ambassador to Scotland.

There, thrown upon his own resources in a far cold country, this forlorn Italian managed to ingratiate himself among the musicians of Mary, the unhappy Queen of Scots.

She eventually noticed him and engaged him as a singer. He gradually rose higher in her political and personal favour till he became secretary for French affairs, and conducted himself with such odious pride and grew so rich and so powerful that at last he was dragged from the very presence of the queen and slain.

And this was in the year A contemporary of the Rizzio, so humble as a musician and so продолжение здесь in his intrigues, was the great Roland de Lattre, better known as Orland di Lassus or Orlandus Lassus, the “Belgian Orpheus,” ” le Prince des Musiciens.

But he was born in either or at Mons in Hainault, and, according to the old Annales du Hainault, he changed his name from Roland de Lattre to Orland di Lassus because his father had been convicted of making spurious coin and, as a “false moneyer,” had to wear a string of his evil utterances round his windows 10 1703 download iso italiano inglese webers.



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The mother and three daughters were left to shift for themselves. Two years later they must sell a few musical remains and the town must aid them out of its funds. In the winter ten years after her husband’s death, on Feb. Her only mourners were her daughters and a fourth of the public school children, who were forced by the custom of the day to follow to the grave the body of the very poor.

In Bach’s daughter Regina was still living, a “good old woman,” who would have starved had there not been a public subscription, to which Beethoven contributed the proceeds of a composition.

Gradually the name and fame of Johann Sebastian Bach were obliterated almost from man’s memory. Half a century of oblivion was followed by the great revival and the apotheosis of his genius. In that apotheosis some radiance must always be vouchsafed the sweet memory of her to whom he owed so much of his life’s delight and his art’s inspiration, to whom also he dedicated his life and his music—Anna Magdalena.

Another called him a Moor. And two others could not endure him at all. He was undersized and slender as well; and his legs were so very short that they hardly reached the ground.

His nose was long and beaked and disfigured, with nostrils of different shape, and he was undershot like a bulldog, and unusually pitted with smallpox even for those ante-vaccination days, when it was the ordinary thing to show the marks of this plague.

He always wore a wig, too; beginning when he was a child of six, “for the sake of cleanliness”! This does not read like the portrait of a man particularly successful in his love affairs. It does not certainly read like a description of the hero of a novel written by The Duchess or even by Miss Jane Austen.

Everybody knows the story of the early life of Joseph Haydn, one of the twelve children of a journeyman wheelwright, and throughout his youth a shuttlecock of ill treatment and contempt. Love seems to have reached his heart at a late day but with compensating suddenness.

It is nearly incredible that a man whose after life was so heart-busy should not have felt the tender passion till he was nearly thirty, but stranger things have happened, and the anecdote given by his friend Griesinger of his wild agitation when at the age of twenty-seven he was accompanying a young countess, and her neckerchief became disarranged for a moment, would seem to indicate a remarkably unsophisticated nature.

A year later he found himself somewhat relieved of the burden of poverty that had always hampered him, and he remembered him of the two daughters of a Viennese wig-maker named Keller. Keller had frequently been kind to Haydn, and the younger daughter seems to have inspired him with an ardent love, but she took the veil.

Elise Polko has worked up an elaborate fiction on this affair with her usual saccharinity. When the convent closed the younger Keller from the world, her father ingeniously suggested to Haydn that he might marry the elder sister. As Louis Nohl says, “Whatever may have been the reason, gratitude, ignorance, helplessness in practical matters, or wish to have a wife at once—whatever may have been the motive, he married, and sorely suffered for it.

Anna Keller was older than Haydn, and the family religiousness that led the younger daughter to enter the convent, led Anna to contribute more of money to the Church, of food and society to the churchmen, and of her husband’s compositions to the choir, than even so pious a Catholic as Haydn could afford or endure.

An account of the married life of these two is given by Haydn’s friend Carpani, which incidentally brings up a bit of literary thievery of unusual quaintness. Carpani wrote his “Le Haydine” in the form of letters from Vienna; they were published in Milan. Some time after one Marie Henri Beyle published in Paris what purported to be an original series of “Letters written from Vienna.

Carpani exposed the theft, but a little later the imperturbable Beyle published a second edition of his work under the name De Stendhal. An English translation from the French work is commonly seen, though never with credit to Carpani. Carpani, in his account of the home life of the Haydns, says they were happy for a honeymoon.

Anna turned the knot to a chain, the bliss to torment, and affairs went so far that, after suffering many years, this new Socrates ended by separating from his Xantippe. Anna was not pretty, nor yet ugly. Her manners were immaculate, but she had a wooden head, and when she had fixed on a caprice, there was no way to change it.

The woman loved her husband but was not congenial. An excess of religious piety badly directed came to disturb this happy harmony. Anna wanted the house always full of priests, to whom she furnished good dinners, suppers, and luncheons. Haydn was a bit economical; but rather for cause than desire.

At this time he had hardly enough to live on discreetly, and he began to look with evil eye on this endless procession of holy grasshoppers locuste who ravaged his larder. Nor was it appropriate to the house of a studious man, this ceaseless clatter of a numerous, genial, and lazy society; therefore, solidly religious as he was, he could not enjoy these sacred repasts and he had to close the door of the refectory.

Anna had a religious brother. Haydn couldn’t keep him from visiting his sister. Haydn’s convent was not depopulated. Nor did the demands decrease. Every now and then Mrs. Anna had a new request; to-day a responsory, to-morrow a motet, the day after a mass, then hymns, then psalms, then antiphons; and all gratis.

If her husband declined to write them, there appeared on the scene the great confederates of capricious women; the effects of hysteria, spleen gli insulti di stomaco , spasms; then shrieks, then criminations, weepings, quarrels, and bad humour unceasing.

Haydn ended with having to appease the woman, to lose his point, and pay the doctor and the druggist to boot. He had always drouth in his purse and despair in his mind. It is a true miracle that a genius in such a contrast could create the wonderful works that all the world knows. This friendship, rousing jealous suspicions in the mind of Mrs. Anna, ended by rendering her unendurable. The hostile fates willed that no fruit should be borne of Haydn’s marriage.

The pair ceased to live together, and only that sacramental knot remained indissoluble and strong, which Haydn had contracted at the age of twenty-seven. Anna lived to seventy years on a sufficient pension which her husband faithfully paid, and she died in These vicissitudes in great part explain why Haydn, though he earned much, could not for a long while put aside a penny and make himself a little ease. It is not a pretty picture that Carpani draws of this home life, and Anna is made out to be far from a lovable creature.

She is compared to the patron saint of shrews, Xantippe. But even Xantippe had her side of the story to tell; and with all possible admiration for that man Socrates, of such godlike wisdom and such great heart, it must be remembered that Socrates had many habits which would not only cause ostracism from society to-day, but would have tried the temper of even such a wife as the meek Griselda of Chaucer’s poem.

We constantly meet these husbands who are seemingly rich in geniality and yet are mysteriously unhappy at home. It is the custom of the acquaintances of these fellows to put all the blame on the wife. But there is a distinct type of mind which always enjoys dining abroad and appreciates a few herbs in a stranger’s house more than a stalled ox at home.

These people are gentle and genial and tender only out-of-doors. You might call them extra-mural saints. I have a strong suspicion that Haydn, who was so dear and good a soul that he was commonly called “Papa” by his friends and disciples, was one of the souls that shrivel up inside the house.

In any case he can never be forgiven for publishing his domestic miseries as he did. He talked inexcusably to his friends about his wife; he complained everywhere of her extravagances and of her quarrelsomeness.

When Griesinger wished to make Haydn’s wife a present, Haydn forbade him, saying:. It is little matter to her whether her husband is an artist or a cobbler. As he passed in front of a picture of her once, he seized the violinist Baillot by the arm, and pointing to the picture said, “That is my wife. Many a time she has maddened me. There will sometime be an end of this torment. Louis Nohl speaks of this as written in a gentle and almost sorrowful tone!

As his biographers find gentleness in such writing, it is easy to see why Mrs. Haydn has had few defenders. Heaven forbid that I should be considered as throwing all the blame for the unhappiness upon the husband. Anna Keller had a remarkably long and sharp tongue whose power she did not neglect; she once complained to her husband that there was not money enough in the house to bury him in case he died suddenly.

He pointed to a series of canons which he had written and framed. Haydn bought it later for himself, and lived in it several years as a widower. Carpani in his thirteenth letter draws a pleasant picture of Haydn’s life with his mistress Boselli, and incidentally describes how various composers composed: Gluck with his piano in a summer meadow and the bottled sunshine of Champagne on each side; Sarti in a dark room at night with a funereal lamp pendant from the ceiling; Salieri in the streets eating sweets; Paer while joking with his friends, gossiping on a thousand things, scolding his servants, quarrelling with his wife and children and petting his dog; Cimarosa in the midst of noisy friends; Sacchini with his sweetheart at his side and his kittens playing on the floor about him; Paesiello in bed; Zingarelli after reading the holy fathers or a classic; Anfossi in the midst of roast capons, steaming sausages, gammons of bacon and ragouts.

When he returned among mortals, Boselli and his friends divided his time. For thirty years he led this life, monotona ma dolcissima , not knowing his growing fame nor dreaming of leaving Eisenstadt, save when he mused on Italy. Then Boselli died and he began to feel the ennui le noje of a void in his days. It was then that he went to London. The pleasant legend Carpani gives of Haydn’s life with this woman, undisturbed by ambition until her death, is as much upset by later writers as is the spelling of her name.

She was the wife of Anton Polzelli, an insignificant and sickly violinist, with whom she was apparently not in love. Luigia is pictured—doubtless by guesswork—as not beautiful, but of a pleasing appearance, showing the indications of her Italian birth in “her small slim face, her dark complexion, her black eyes, her chestnut-coloured hair; her body of medium height and elegant form.

Polzelli was in the same position as he: she lived unhappily with her spouse. Whether she honestly returned Haydn’s love cannot be known. Facts hint that she often abused and took advantage of his good nature. But for all that she beautified his life, so often joyless, by the tenderness which she awoke in him; and the woman who throughout twenty years could do that, deserved well of the man whose friend she was; and she earns our consideration and sympathy besides.

From London the master wrote her the tenderest letters. Both, as their correspondence shows, only postponed their union, till the day when ‘four eyes shall be closed,’. Yet Haydn never ceased to provide for his friend, as well as to care for the education and the success of her sons. The elder, Pietro, Haydn’s favourite, on whom he hung with his whole heart, died early.

Pohl is somewhat fuller upon this alliance than Schmidt, who, in fact, merely condenses and paraphrases him. She earned the same salary as her husband, gulden a year. When increasing fame took Haydn by the hand and led him away to royal triumphs in London, he did not take jealousy along with his other luggage.

He seems to have heard that his place was promptly filled in Polzelli’s heart, but with all his geniality, he could write of the rumoured rival as “this man, whose name I do not know, but who is to be so happy as to possess thee.

When some one in London told him that Polzelli had sold the piano he had given her, he could not believe it, and only wrote her, “See how they tease me about you” vedi come mi seccano per via di te. Still less will he believe that she has spoken ill of him, and he writes:. Be careful for thy good name, I beg thee, and think often of thy Haydn, who cherishes and tenderly loves thee and to thee will always be true.

Even to Bologna, whither Polzelli went with her two sons, says Pohl, “followed Haydn’s love—and his gold. Yet have patience. Surely the day will come when I can show thee how much I love thee. Loisa’s choice of a spouse had been unhappy, as so many marriages have been where the wife is a singer on the stage, and the husband a fiddler in the band.

Haydn seems to have sympathised with Loisa in her unhappy domestic affairs, as cordially as she had sympathised with him in his. He had sympathy, too, for her similarly ill-matched sister, Christine Negri, for he writes of her as—. Also in March, , he wrote Loisa about her husband in a manner implying that he was a brute or a maniac: “Thou hast done well to have him taken to the hospital to save thy life.

I tell thee that Providence has managed well in freeing thee from thy heavy burden, for it is better to be in the other world, than useless in this one. The poor fellow has suffered enough. Already two eyes are closed. But the other two—ah, well, as God wills! The lovers at last were both single. But now, freed of their shackles, why do they not rush to each other’s arms? The only answer we receive is this chill and shocking document found long after Haydn’s death; it is written in Italian and dated shortly after Frau Haydn’s death:.

Valid before every court. I sign myself,. On this sad and icy postscript to the ardent love affair, Schmidt comments: “The form of this writing leaves the conclusion plain, that Haydn was forced to this act by the Polzelli. This throws a poor light on her character, and we dare not evade the conclusion that, for twenty years in this love affair for life, she had in mind a business arrangement with the master.

Thus cynically writes Schmidt of the woman who for a score of years occupied Haydn’s affections. And all of the biographers are inclined to heap upon her more or less contempt; but as you shall see a little later, the genial master himself was not above reproach, and Loisa’s anxiety was not unfounded, for her Joseph was casting amorous glances elsewhere.

Thus after the long ardour, the love letters have frozen into a hard and fast negative betrothal in which Haydn promises to marry no one else. This, Schmidt says, was dragged out of Haydn. But, if such a bond were necessary, it speaks surely as ill for Haydn as for the woman who had given her life and her good name to brighten his joyless heart.

Yet, dead as his love was, honour remained with him, though it was a rather close-reckoning honour. Three months later he answered with money her request for house-rent, and in a will dated May 5, , occurs this clause, cancelling his former agreement, and making new provisions:.

After her death her son, Anton Polzelli, to receive florins for one year, having always been a good son to his mother and a grateful pupil to me. Polzelli; otherwise so many of my poor relations with greater claims would receive too little. Finally Mme. Polzelli must be satisfied with the annuity of florins. She still remains, however, his chief heir. Meanwhile, without waiting for his death, she had married again to Luigi Franci, like herself a singer and an Italian.

She outlived him and Haydn also, only to die in poverty and senility, far away in Hungary. Poor, eighty-two year old Loisa! Her affairs had been sadly mismanaged. Why had Loisa given up all hope of marrying Haydn, even when his wife was dead and she was possessed of his agreement, signed, sealed, and delivered, to marry no one but her?

Awhile ago I stooped to repeating the scandal that during Signora Polzelli’s life, Haydn had been casting sheep’s eyes elsewhere. But it is such a pretty scandal! Besides, these old contrapuntists were trained from youth to keep two or more tunes going at once.

I am not referring to Haydn’s friendship with Frau von Genzinger. It was Karajan who discovered and published this pleasant correspondence with her. She was the wife of a very successful physician, a “ladies’ doctor” Damen Doktor. Karajan says that she was an ausgezeichnete singer and pianist. A deep friendship sprang up at once between them and they corresponded freely. Haydn’s letters to her were published by Nohl, and you may read them in Lady Wallace’s translation.

They are full of the most interesting lights upon Haydn’s life and experiences, and are brimful of affection for Frau von Genzinger. But the husband and the children are almost always referred to in the letters, and the friendship seems to have been entirely and only a friendship,—as Schmidt calls it, ” eine tiefe und zugleich respectvolle Neigung.

Upton, who accepts the friendship as “honourable,” finds in Frau von Genzinger the only true feminine inspiration Haydn ever had for composition. There is no record that the Polzelli was of any benefit to him musically; certainly she was not morally. But there was another woman who idolised Haydn the musician, and with Haydn the man conducted a quaint and curious love duet embalmed in many a billet-doux fragrant with charm.

It was not, then, Frau von Genzinger that threatened Polzelli’s supremacy. Nor was it Madame Bartolozzi, for whom Haydn wrote a sonata and three trios; nor Mrs. John Hunter, who wrote words for many of his canzonets. Nor yet Mrs. Hodges, for whom he composed, and whom he called “the loveliest woman I ever saw. Billington, of whom the pleasant story is told, that Haydn, when he went to London, called on Sir Joshua Reynolds at his studio, found him painting Mrs.

Billington as “Saint Cecilia listening to the angels,” and protested gallantly that Reynolds ought to have painted the angels listening to her. For which sprightliness he received immediately a fervent hug and a kiss from those so sweet and promiscuous lips. The skeptics object, that Reynolds exhibited the picture in London in , a year before Haydn reached London, but it is a shame to spoil a good and famous story. Schroeter presents her complements to Mr.

Haydn, and informs him that she is just returned to town, and will be very happy to see him whenever it is convenient to him to give her a lesson. This little note was the first of a series of genuine love letters preserved for many years by Haydn. His answers to them seem to have been lost, though the whimsical spade of time that has recently brought to light the works of Bacchylides, after two thousand years and more of oblivion, may with equal speed unsod Haydn’s letters to this interesting personage.

May we be there to see! Just nineteen years before this little preludising note, Mrs. Schroeter was an Englishwoman of wealth and aristocracy. In that year there came to London a German musician, Johann Samuel Schroeter, a brother of Corona Schroeter, one of that Amazonian army of beauties to whom Goethe made love and wrote poetry.

He became music-master to the English queen as successor to that son of Sebastian Bach who is known as “the English Bach.

But being welcomed as a musician was one thing and as a son-in-law quite another. When, therefore, he made one of his most aristocratic pupils his wife by a clandestine marriage, there was, according to Fetis, such scandal and such a threat of legal proceedings that he consented to the annulment of the marriage in consideration of a pension of five hundred pounds, and retired from the city to escape notoriety.

Sixteen years after his entry into London Schroeter died of consumption. Three years later another German musician, Joseph Haydn, appears in London, and is taken up by society. Schroeter, apparently not sated by her first experience, proceeds to repeat it pat.

Just as before, she becomes a pupil in music, and later a pupil in love of the newcomer. But whereas her husband had died at the age of thirty-eight, her new lover Haydn was fifty-nine when she met him. Dies quoted Haydn’s own words as saying, “In London, I fell in love with a widow, though she was sixty years old at the time. Krehbiel shows good reason for believing that Dies must have misunderstood Haydn. To me it occurs as a possibility that Haydn said to Dies, not “though she was sixty years old,” but “though I was sixty years old.

Krehbiel that she was not more than thirty-five or forty, an age not yet so great, according to statistics, as that of Helen of Troy, Cleopatra, and Marian Delorme, at the times of their most potent beauty. Let us also dismiss as unauthorised and gratuitous the words of Pauline D. Townsend, in her biography of Haydn, when she says of Mrs. Schroeter that she was “an attractive, although, according to modern taste, a somewhat vulgar woman, of over sixty years of age, and there is no disguising the fact that she made violent love to Haydn.

Her letters to Haydn are full of tenderness and in questionable taste; his to her have not been preserved, but we can have little doubt that they were warmer in tone than they would have been had not the Channel rolled between him and Frau Haydn in Vienna. You may judge for yourself as to the charge of “vulgarity. The existence of Mrs. Schroeter’s veritable Love Letters of an Englishwoman was known for many years, and Pohl in his book on “Mozart und Haydn in London” quoted from them.

But for their complete publication in the original English, we are indebted to Mr. Krehbiel’s “Music and Manners in the Classical Period. I cannot do better than let these letters speak for themselves through such quotations as I have room to make. There are twenty-two of them in all, in Mr. Krehbiel’s book. The abbreviations are curious and explain themselves. The abbreviations were possibly due to the fact that the letters exist only in Haydn’s own handwriting, copied into his note-book without attention to their proper order.

Or they may have been simply the amorous shorthand of that day. Two of them are signed R. Schroeter’s first name began with R. In the first letter Mrs. Schroeter says that she encloses him “the words of the song you desire.

In his note-book there is an entry on February 13, , and just preceding it a little Italian poem in which I have been pleased to see what was possibly this very song, its first lines being suggestively like the first line of Mrs. Schroeter’s letter. Among the letters there are many anxious allusions, which may indicate that Haydn was suffering from insomnia, unless you are inclined to give them a more subtle significance.

But to the quotations, with regrets that they must be incomplete. Inclos’d I have sent you the words of the song you desire. I wish much to know how you do to day. I am very sorry to lose the pleasure of seeing you this morning, but I hope you will have time to come tomorrow. I beg my D you will take great care of your health and do not fatigue yourself with too much application to business.

My thoughts and best wishes are always with you, and I ever am with the utmost sincerity M. I was extremely sorry to part with you so suddenly last night, our conversation was particularly interesting and I had a thousand affectionate things to Say to you. I am very Sorry I was so dull and Stupid yesterday, indeed my Dearest it was nothing but my being indisposed with a cold occasioned my Stupidity.

I thank you a thousand times for your Concern for me. I am truly Sensible of your goodness and I assure you my D. I hope you will come to me tomorrow.

I shall be happy to See you both in the Morning and the Evening. God Bless you my love. I beg you a thousand pardons for not sending it sooner. I know you will have the goodness to excuse me. I hope to hear you are quite well and have Slept well. I shall be happy to See you my D: as soon as possible.

I shall be much obliged to you if you will do me the favor to send me Twelve Tikets for your Concert. I am so truly anxious about you. I must write to beg to know how you do? I was very sorry I had not the pleasure of Seeing you this Evening, my thoughts have been constantly with you and my D.

I thought you seemed out of Spirits this morning. I wish I could always remove every trouble from your mind, be assured my D: I partake with the most perfect sympathy in all your sensations and my regard is Stronger every day. I was extremely Sorry to hear this morning that you were indisposed. I am told you were five hours at your Studys yesterday, indeed my D. I am afraid it will hurt you. I almost tremble for your health let me prevail on you my much-loved H. I cannot leave London without Sending you a line to assure you my thoughts, my best wishes and tenderest affections will inseparably attend you till we meet again.

If my H. I hope to see you Friday at the concert and on Saturday to dinner, till when and ever I most sincerely am and Shall be yours etc. If you will do me the favor to take your dinner with me tomorrow I shall be very happy to see you and particularly wish for the pleasure of your company my Dst Love before our other friends come.

I hope to hear you are in good Health. My best wishes and tenderest Regards are your constant attendants and I ever am with the firmest Attachment my Dst H most sincerely and Affectionately yours,. I can not close my eyes to sleep till I have return’d you ten thousand thanks for the inexpressible delight I have received from your ever Enchanting compositions and your incomparably Charming performance of them, be assured my D. I hope to hear you are quite well. Shall be happy to see you to dinner and if you can come at three o’Clock it would give me a great pleasure as I shou’d be particularly glad to see you my D.

I am truly anxious and impatient to See you and I wish to have as much of your company as possible; indeed my Dst H.

I feel for you the fondest and tenderest affection the human Heart is capable of and I ever am with the firmest attachment my Dst Love. I hope to hear you are quite well and I shall be very happy to see you my Dst Hn. You will receive this letter to-morrow morning. I would not send it to-day for fear you should not be at home and I wish to have your answer.

God bless you my Dst. Love, once more I repeat let me See you as Soon as possible. I ever am with the most inviolable attachment my Dst and most beloved H. My D: I intreat you to inform me how you do and if you get any Sleep to Night. I am extremely anxious about your health. I hope to hear a good account of it. I shall be happy to See you both morning and Evening. I always am with the tenderest Regard my D: your Faithful and Affectionate. This is the last of these letters to which one could apply so fitly the barbarous word “yearnful,” once coined by Keats.

After Haydn’s return to London, in , there are no letters to indicate a continuance of the acquaintance, but it doubtless was renewed, judging from the sagacious guess based upon the fact that Haydn did not come back to his old lodgings but took new ones at No.

This much more pleasantly situated dwelling, he probably owed to the considerate care of Mrs. Schroeter, who, by the same token, thus brought him nearer to herself. A short and pleasant walk of scarcely ten minutes through St. James’s Palace and the Mall a broad alley alongside of St. James’s Park led him to Buckingham Palace, and near at hand was the house of Mrs. Perhaps he preferred the walk to letter-writing.

When he went away from London for ever, he left behind him the scores of his six last symphonies “in the hands of a lady,” probably Mrs. It was this same woman to whom Haydn dedicated three trios, his first, second, and sixth. It was undoubtedly she to whom he referred when he made that little speech which Dies probably misquoted, in telling the answer Haydn gave him when he was asked what the letters were.

Let us remember that these old love letters, so fragrant with faded affections, were being received by Papa Haydn even while he was writing to Polzelli, rejoicing in the closing of two of those four baleful eyes that forbade their union. And let us not judge too harshly the Italian woman who had given this unbeautiful Austrian of such beautiful genius so much of her sunshine and tenderness.

Nor let us judge too harshly the enamoured English widow. Why indeed need we judge harshly at all? When Haydn died he had no child to leave his wealth to—even the fable that Anton Polzelli was his natural son is taken away from us by Pohl, who points out how small and temporary was the provision made for him in Haydn’s will. Among the heirlooms left by Haydn was a watch given to him by that Admiral of Admirals, Lord Nelson—and that points to us as a by-path, which it were pleasant, though forbidden now, to wander, the story of Nelson’s fervent amour with Lady Hamilton, that beautiful work of art, that pet of artists.

As a postscript to Haydn’s story we may tag on here a concise statement in his note-book, of the domestic affairs of one whom we do not think of now as a musician. It is forty feet long and five feet in diameter. The machinery is vast, but so ingenious that a single man can put it in motion with ease.

There are also two smaller telescopes, of which one is twenty-two feet long and magnifies six thousand times. The king had two made for himself, of which each measures twelve Schuh.

He gave him one thousand guineas for them. In his younger days Doctor Herschel was in the Prussian service as an oboe player. In the seven years’ war he deserted with his brother and came to England.

For many years he supported himself with music, became organist at Bath, turned, however, to astronomy. After providing himself with the necessary instruments he left Bath, rented a room not far from Windsor, and studied day and night.

His landlady was a widow. Ten years ago he had his sister come; she is of the greatest service to him in his observations. Frequently he sits from five to six hours under the open sky in the severest cold.

They are drawn thither by a vacancy in the post of town-organist. And their competition is to be friendly. For they have learned that the successful candidate must marry the daughter of the man in whose shoes they would fain have trodden the pedals. One look at the daughter was enough. She was not fair to see, and her years were thirty-four—just six years less than the total years of the two young candidates. Back to Hamburg the two friends go, and the next year their friendship suffers a serious strain.

The elder, now aged twenty-three, is producing “Cleopatra,” an opera of his own composition, and incidentally playing the role of Antony. The younger of the friends is the conductor, and presides, as is the custom of the time, at the clavecin. There is another custom in the performance of that opera, a curious one, too. For it is the wont of the composer-singer, when he has died as Antony, to come to life again and conduct the rest of his opera at the clavecin.

But the younger friend, now full of the importance of nineteen years, and being the successor to the great Reinhard Keiser, is not disposed to yield the clavecin, even to his versatile friend. A quarrel that narrowly escapes ruining the melodious swan-song of Cleopatra, is postponed till after the final curtain. Then it takes the form of a duel. The composer manages at last to elude the parry of the conductor; he throws all his weight and venom into a lunge that must prove fatal,—but a large brass button sheds the point of the sword and saves its wearer for a better fate.

By the strange medicinal virtue of duels, the wound in the friendship is healed, honour is poulticed, and the friendship begins again, lasting with healthful interruptions until the younger musician goes his way toward the fulness of his glory; the elder his way along the lines of versatility—which leave him in the eyes of posterity rather valued as a writer than aught else.

The old organist whose death had brought these two younkers on their wild-goose chase was Dietrich Buxtehude, the famous man whom Johann Sebastian Bach walked fifty miles on foot to hear, and whose compositions he studied and profited from. Old Buxtehude, himself the son of an organist, had himself married the daughter of the organist who had preceded him.

The daughter he left behind to frighten away aspiring candidates did not languish long. According to Chrysander, a certain J. The elder of the two young men was Johann Mattheson — , a sort of “Admirable Crichton,” who married in Catherine Jennings, daughter of an English clergyman and the relative of a British admiral. That is all of his story that belongs here.

His friend Mattheson, like Beethoven, spent his later years in the dungeon of deafness. In almost every other respect the careers of these two men were unlike, particularly in the obscure and prolific married life of the one and in the almost royal prominence of the other’s bachelorhood.

The only time on record when he took a woman into his arms was the occasion when the great singer, Cuzzoni, refused to sing an air of his the way he wished it. He seized her, and, dragging her to a window, threatened to throw her out, thundering, “I always knew you were a devil, but I’ll show you that I am Beelzebub, the prince of devils. Had he hurt his health or fortune by indulgences of this kind, they would have been vicious; as he did not, they were at the most indecorous.

A story is told of him that he once ordered up enough dinner for three. I am de gombany. Bray, however, says that “in his youth he was the most handsome man of his time. Handel resembles Lully somewhat in his reputation for being a lover of the table and a neglecter of womankind.

Schoelcher in his biography states “that not one woman occupies the smallest place in the long career of his life. Burney describes Vittoria as ‘a songstress of talent. At that period, and even later, it was not uncommon to find princes and princesses singing in the pieces which were produced at their courts. All the English biographers say that he was too prudent to accept an attachment which would have been ruin to both. This is calumny, for he was never prudent. This Vittoria is an interesting problem in romance.

Chrysander in his great biography properly notes that the legend has been twisted, and represents here the god as fleeing from the nymph.

Chrysander tries to prove that this Vittoria was no other than the famous singer, Vittoria Tesi, “a contralto of masculine strength,” as one listener describes her voice. She was very dramatic, and made her chief success in men’s roles, singing bass songs transposed an octave higher.

That she should be capable of so ardent a love at that age need hardly be mentioned when we remember that Romeo’s Juliet was only twelve at the time of her immortal amour. No stranger account is given than that of Doctor Burney, who describes her peculiar method of escaping the proposals of a certain nobleman who implored her to marry him. She had no prejudices against the nobleman, but strong prejudices against marriage. Finally, to quiet her lover’s conscientious appeals, she went out into the street and bribed the first labouring man she met with fifty ducats to marry her.

Her new husband sped from dumbfounded delight to amazed regret, for he found that with her money she bought only his name and a marriage document, as a final answer to the count when next he came whimpering of conventional marriage. He is still reigning to the lasting detriment of English musical independence. Smith, with compositions by J. William Coxe. He was something of a composer himself, and on his death-bed advised his widow to consult Doctor Coxe in every emergency; whereupon, to simplify matters and have the counsellor handy, in due time she married him.

The first would have married him, but her mother said she should never marry a fiddler. After the mother’s death, the father implied that all obstacles were now removed, but too late. He never saw the girl again, and she fell into a decline, which soon terminated her existence. But when he declined, she also declined, and died after the fashion of the eighteenth century. He brought many singers to London for his operas, and their romances would fill ten volumes.

There is the famous tenor, Beard, for instance, the creator of “Samson. Six years later he married the daughter of a harlequin. Then there was the singer Senesino, and Farinelli, whose heart and brain were real though his voice was artificial. He became finally a sort of vocal prime minister to Spain. To start one of these romances of singers would be like throwing a match in a fireworks factory.

Gluck did not make a success on his London visit, and began to criticise both his own work and contemporary schools of opera, with a thoroughness that resulted in a determination to “reform it altogether. Among the homes in which he was most cordially received, was that of the rich banker and wholesale merchant, Joseph Pergin, who had a large business with Holland. Both daughters of the house were, according to Reissman’s not particularly novel expression, “passionately fond of music.

She reciprocated the feelings, and the mother gave her consent to the betrothal. Gluck dared to deem the year , in which this change took place, the happiest of his life; but it also turned out to be his saddest, for the father refused his consent. This man, haughty with his wealth, rejected the honoured artist, since he was only a musician, and since, besides, his art offered no sufficient promise or surety for the proper support of a young woman. The lovers accepted the separation thus enforced, with patience, promising themselves that it should not be for long, and that they would preserve unbroken fidelity.

Gluck was called to Rome the next year, and there he had the news that the stern father was dead. No children were born to the couple, but they took into their home a niece, and Gluck’s wife devoted much of her time to the poor. He even left it to her pleasure whether his brothers and sisters should have anything or not, and said in his will, ‘Since the fundamental principle of every testament is the appointment of an heir, I hereby appoint my dear wife, M.

None of the letters of Gluck, that I have been able to find, concern his married life, though many of them are in existence concerning his operatic warfare. Burney met him in in Paris, where he was living with his wife and niece.

In , on his way back home from Paris, he stopped off at Strasburg to meet the poet Klopstock. Strauss quotes a description by a merchant of Karlsruhe of this scene: “Old Gluck sang and played, con amore , many passages from the ‘Messiah’ set to music by himself; his wife accompanying him in a few other pieces. After dinner, it was his custom to take coffee out-of-doors, in the free, fresh air and the golden sunlight, where he used to have his piano placed when he would compose.

Two old friends from Paris had dined with him, and they were soon to leave. Frau von Gluck left the guests for a moment, to order the carriage. While she was gone, one of the guests declined the liqueur set before him. Now Gluck was always addicted to looking upon the champagne when it was yellow; in fact, he used always to have a bottle at each wing of his piano, when he composed, and was wont to end his compositions, his bottles, and his sobriety in one grand Fine.

But now he was forbidden to take wine, for fear of heating his blood. On this day, however, he pretended to be angry at his guest for refusing the choice liqueur. In a burlesque rage, he seized the glass, drained it at a gulp, and jokingly begged the guests not to tell his wife.

She came back to the room to say that the carriage was ready. Frau von Gluck and the guests left him for half an hour, and he bade them a cheerful farewell. Fifteen minutes later his third stroke of apoplexy attacked him, and his horrified wife returning found him unconscious. In a few hours he was dead. This wife, with whom he lived so congenially, and whose money gave him even more luxury than his operatic success could have procured,—indeed, the very house he died in she had bought for eleven thousand florins,—outlived him less than three years, dying March 12, , at the age of seventy-one.

She was buried near him, and her tomb, built by her nephew, has the following epitaph:. She was a good Christian, and without ostentation a mother to the poor. She was loved and cherished by all who knew her. During the fierce battles Gluck fought in Paris, one of his most ardent partisans was Jean Jacques Rousseau, who was a musician in a small way, wrote songs, an enormously successful opera, “Le Devin du Village,” and other musical works, besides making an attempt to reform musical notation, and writing a dictionary of music.

The world, however, does not accept him as a musician but as a writer, and his numerous and curious love affairs are told in so much detail in his immortal “Confessions,” that I cannot attempt to treat them here.

Vandam, in his book on “Great Amours,” dissects Rousseau’s heart ruthlessly. For his ability to do this, he must thank Rousseau most, for the unequalled frankness of his own biography, Francis Greble, dissecting “Rousseau’s first love,” has neatly dubbed him “the Great High Priest of those who kiss and tell.

As most people know, statistics is a way to define, gather and interpret information that describes the world according to a particular frame or model. Story-telling is an example of a very old KCP that provides a way to sense and make-sense of the world. Both of these KCP, statistics and story- telling, are familiar methods for describing the imaginary future.

For instance, statistics is essential for macro-economic forecasting or climate change modelling aimed at producing probabilistic estimates or predictions of the future.

This lack of awareness is also characteristic of the dominant institutions of the industrial era, public or private — all organised along variants of the bureaucratic division of labour and power. For instance, most people are famil- iar with the dedicated and highly technical systems that can be found in sectors like the military, finance, technology, health, consumer goods, infrastructure, urban planning, energy, etc.

Past, present and future all succumb to the same descriptive framing that ignores, dis- cards or denigrates the specific, unique and ephemeral. These are methods of knowing that can range from the micro to the macro, from small-scale to large-scale phenomena, consist- ent with the aims of aggregation, comparability and affirming continuity repetition.

Trends and forecasts are its most familiar methods for imagining and describ- ing the future. From the perspective of the emergent present GS phenomena are those that repeat Delanda, , otherwise there is no way of knowing if such phenomena are GS. In part, all knowing contains an element of30 Riel Miller novelty insofar as the experience of arriving at one meaning rather than another is a definitive exclusion, at that moment, of that other meaning and of a dif- ferent experience.

Methods that enable meaning to be attached to SU phenomena do so despite the potential that such meanings may or may not be transient, may or may not become general, may or may not have been unknowable unknowns unmarked prior to emergence. SU phenomena take into account that initially there is no way of knowing future states. Nevertheless, KCP for knowing the SU attach meaning, often without words, to phenomena in the emergent present. The KCP used to imagine the future must be selected on the basis of the spe- cific goals and contexts within which the future is being used.

Why project one form of storage or way of being, such as a sedentary way of life and hence the need for a cabinet? The selection of KCP depends on the choice of why the future is being used and the associated kind of future, in conjunction with the specific context that determines both the actual sources of knowledge that serve as ingre- dients for generating the content of an imagined future and the conditions that shape the process.

Someone who is highly futures literate is knowledgeable and experienced in the design of KCP that will be effective and efficient for deploying specific AS in specific contexts. Using Figure 1. This book, with its focus on initial, proof-of-concept research into FL, is not the place for an exhaustive review and analysis of either KCP as a field or the relationship of KCP in general to thinking about the future.

It is important, how- ever, to underscore the diversity and contextual specificity of the methods that can accompany efforts to become futures literate see fourth section, first part, and Chapter 4. There is no suggestion here that there is only one approach — on the contrary the thrust of developing the FLF is to enable the diversification of methods in light of a clear theoretical framework and a foundation for conducting experiments that test hypotheses about why and how humans anticipate.

AA are to FL what an atom is to phys- ics or the cell to living systems. Without abusing the parallels to other disciplines, it is clearly scientifically useful for both the theory and practice of anticipation to be able to identify a common object of inquiry that serves as a shared refer- ence point for the exploration of different facets of the topic and the development of specialised sub-fields.

From macro- and micro-economics to labour market and welfare economics, the starting point for questions, hypotheses, and evidence was the nature and dynam- ics of the allocation of resources such as land, labour and capital to the production of income flow and wealth stock.

Of course, the organisation of a field into sub-disciplines around a core topic takes time. Economics, if one starts count- ing with Adam Smith, has had well over two centuries. Futures Studies and an understanding of FL as a capability are fields that are still in the early stages of development. One potentially important step along the path towards building a shared lan- guage for research into FL and the FLL-N case studies reported in Chapter 5 is to begin detailing the characteristics of different clusters of AA.

Looking at Figure 1. Much of the time, given the widespread lack of FL, people do not make explicit choices about which AA to adopt. By getting people to reveal why and how they anticipate, FLL generate indicators that can be associated with different clusters of AA.

Typical examples are macro-economic and climate change forecasting that extrapolate from the past. The currently dominant epis- temological tools for describing AA1 imaginary futures include statistics and benchmarking that use aggregation type common denominators.

Totalising determin- istic imagination. Colonisation of tomorrow. Insurance for tomorrow. The imaginary futures in AA2 are foretold. Atrophy of the imagination. AA3 futures can be probabilistic or normative from within a given paradigm.

Creativity methods can be used to seek generalisable solutions but within the confines of AfF type goals. Currently most innovation activities are in AA3. Deterministic creative imagination. AA4 target endogenous creativity, imagining that is confined to extrapolatory probabilistic or pre-conceived normative futures AfF. Introspective adaptive imagination.

AA5 seeks to detect and invent novelty with reference to phenomena that repeat Delanda, , since if the phenomenon is not immediately identifiably repetition there is no way of initially knowing if something is general or scalable. Repetition includes variation, a given variable that increases or decreases. Combines doing and not-doing imagination related to general-scalable repetition.

Local is used here in its most basic dictionary sense: as within a limited physical or virtual community such that what appears to be a specific-unique dif- ference at the local, and in this sense isolated level, may turn out to be something that has already been identified as a general-scalable repetition at a more global level. Combines doing and not-doing imagination related to specific-unique difference as being. On the basis of these two dimensions — ontological and epistemological — the FLF depicted in Figure 1.

Stated actively, a futures literate person can choose the AA that are appropriate to the kind of future they want to know and then design and implement the pro- cesses that enable them to acquire such knowledge. In a nutshell, a futures literate34 Riel Miller person is capable of using anticipation for different ends, in different ways and in different contexts. Two examples of applying the Futures Literacy Framework The two sub-sections below offer examples of how the FLF can be applied to specific design and analytical tasks.

In the second example, the FLF is used to map the theories and practices that currently dominate the field of Future Studies. This sub-section provides an initial overview of the two-part response to the challenge of designing a research methodology for discovering, inventing and reporting on the actual AA people are using — world- wide. More detail can be found in Chapters 4 and 5. The first part involved the development of an effective and efficient method capable of revealing a full range of AA in almost all contexts around the world.

FLL are such a general- purpose tool. The second part of the response to the research challenges of this project entailed the tailoring of FLL to the specific search for AA from across all six clusters, AA1 to AA6. The FLL-N is such a customisation. From to experiments with different configurations of the basic FLL design were run around the world, from the FuturesIreland Miller et al. The rest of this sub-section gives a summary overview of the FLL and FLL-N in order to provide readers another example of the application of the FLF and to set the stage for the rest of the book.

But again, as already discussed, any such exploration of the relevance and diffusion of the AS and KCP that underpin FL faces a fundamental obstacle — ignorance. For the most part, despite the fact that people, communities and organisations all use imaginary futures all the time, few pay explicit attention to the why, what and how of these anticipatory activities. In other words, they are futures illiterate. Such illiteracy poses a basic scientific challenge: how to identify or describe AA, including those AA that may depend on already being futures literate?

And then, on the basis of an answer to this first question, how to find methods for generating evidence that can test whether or not such descriptions correspond to what people are actually doing or could be doing if they were futures literate?

At a fundamental level, all research is always confronted with this type of chicken-and-egg problem because the universe we are part of is continually evolv- ing and the sensing and sense-making frames and tools that we use to understand it change too — both intentionally and unintentionally. From this perspective, and to recapitulate the path leading to the design and implementation of the FLL-N deployed in this particular project, it is useful to underscore that the FLF starts from the hypothesis that anticipation is possible in this universe but that the conscious capacity of humans to describe and use it can be further elaborated.

Practice and theory, theory and practice go together. The FLF is such an outcome, fruit of proof-of-concept and design experimentation that has been going on for more than three decades. The FLF supplies an analytical structure for describing conscious human anticipatory activities, detailing six clusters of AA that define and differentiate dimensions of FL as a capability.

This research goal then sets a more precise challenge for the design of a research tool — it must be capable of generating evidence of FL capabilities in AA1 to AA6 worldwide. Hence a necessary requirement was that the tool generate evidence of awareness, or lack thereof, of different AA.

Furthermore, to meet the evidentiary targets of the project the attrib- utes of the AA that are rendered comprehensible by the research tool must include analytical markers that display the distinctive DoA and KCP attributes that char- acterise different AA clusters.

In certain cases, such as AA1 to AA4 this challenge does not pose that much of a problem. It is relatively easy to expose the AA of clusters AA1 to AA4 by inviting people to make the move from tacit to explicit since such expressions are confined to relatively conventional and familiar AA.

More difficult, because of the obstacles posed by paradigm lock-in and the inertial properties of dominant conventions, is generating evidence of AA5 and AA6.

At a minimum, this is a dual challenge. On the other hand, there is the difficulty of capturing or sensing and making-sense of something unfamiliar — how to give the data meaning? Designing a response to the challenge of gathering evidence of AA Arriving at a set of design criteria for an effective and efficient research tool for gathering evidence of AA started, as noted above, over three decades ago.

What is essential in the context of the UNESCO FL Project is not the history of the method but the practical requirements and responses that shaped the research conducted for this project.

Considering the challenges of this project led to the adoption of three key design choices, two of which are basic attributes of FLL in general and one of which is specific to the FLL-N tailored to the needs of this project.

The basic distinction between FLL and FLL-N is typical of laboratory specialisation where the specific implementations of a basic design can be customised to be more effective at testing a particular set of hypotheses.

This kind of customisation should not be confused with the general and universal design requirement that all FLL need to be jointly conceived and implemented in ways that are adapted to the actual context of each experiment. Every time a lab is run the specific ways that participants learn, the specification of the goals, the time of day and the sun- niness or not of the room, for instance, all make a critical difference and must be accounted for in the design and implementation of the lab for further discussion of these issues see Chapters 4 and 5.

A Action learning research. In other words, people were invited to engage in a process that called onSensing and making-sense of FL 37 them to imagine the future and begin articulating the associated AA. As the pro- cess unfolded participants started to become futures literate, able to articulate and discern different AA.

Selecting action learning as the primary method for making AA explicit also offered the advantage of being ex-ante compatible from a design perspective, with a range of reframing tools that can be used to realise the objec- tive of going beyond AfF as required for this specific project and realised through the third design choice below.

This last attribute of CIKC is essential for meeting the design requirements of a global project such as this one. First, the recent and widely dispersed emergence of CIKC initiatives Scharmer, ; Hassan, ; The Grove, ; The Value Web, covering a range of designs, theoretical reference points and goals, seems to be symptomatic of a gap or inadequacy in existing methods for sensing and making-sense of the world around us. In other words, at the current point in time there seems to be a glob- ally dispersed need, in all kinds of different communities, covering a gamut of motivations, to tap into sources for making sense of the world knowing from both the GS and SU perspectives.

This demand for new KCP can be considered, in part, a response to the cognitive dissonance that arises when conceptions of human agency steeped in determinism and reductionism crash headlong into both the reality of complexity and the desire for open creativity and diversity even diversification.

Second, again symptomatic of our times, the growing appreciation of the importance of understanding and engaging with complexity is slowly nourish- ing a counter movement to the dominance of systems for perceiving and giving importance to generalities in mass societies described through using common denominator statistical methods.

But depending on the way the future is imagined, this new KCP might be like the microscope in the 17th century, making the invisible visible. Only as the history of the microscope shows, it was not clear what this new tool would be good for.

Was it a form of entertainment, exposing the mon- sters lurking in a drop of water but invisible to the naked eye? Or was it to assist with gathering the evidence that would show that bacteria cause infection and lead doctors to start washing their hands? As usual the question when a new tool is invented is what will be its signifi- cance or how will it be used?

Finding ways of describing and giving meaning to ephemeral experience opens up new possibilities, like the realisation that learning something, as opposed to not learning, is actually a distinct fork in reality, the one of paths taken and paths not-taken. As the quote from Popper at the beginning of this chapter emphasises, a change in the capacity to appreciate the meaning of process is a way of changing the present. Empowering people with the capacity to understand the role of con- scious anticipation as imagination in shaping perception of the present — in other words they become futures literate — is therefore a way of continuously changing the present.

Just like a chemistry or physics or biology or psychology lab, FLL can be customised in order to explore a particular set of issues, similar to when a chemistry lab is tailored for high-temperature experiments.

Context-determined implementations of FLL usually add other design requirements and solutions on top of the basic FLL founda- tion, as is the case with the FLL-N that was tailored specifically to the needs of this project. For instance, customised FLL, as depicted in Figure 1.

Specific research tasks related to different sets or clusters of AA usually call for research methods adapted to the task. For instance, the customisation of the FLL template to the specific tasks of this Project is achieved by seeking a design customisation that is intended to enable the collection of evidence related to all six clusters, AA1 to AA6. One other general point worth keeping in mind is that FLL are not the only research tool for exploring AA.

As already mentioned in the Introduction, alternative techniques that are familiar to researchers conducting historical, ethnographic, semiotic, anthropological, psychological studies and more all offer viable approaches to collecting evidence regarding AA.

The decision to privilege a customised FLL, the FLL-N, for this project was largely deter- mined by the still emergent nature of this field and the need to be able to conduct low-cost and worldwide proof-of-concept experiments that tested the hypothesis that FL is a capability expressed across all six clusters of AA.

C Reframing. This design criterion calls for the co-creation of a catalyst capable of inducing the learning process to move from AA1 all the way through to AA6. In practical terms, the major hurdle is to find a tool that enables participants to get beyond the frame of AfF.

As noted before, such a move is difficult due to para- digm lock-in and convention inertia, but is design-critical for this project since experience has shown that without a tool like reframing that generates sufficient distance from the hold of AfF there is no assurance that FLL will generate evi- dence related to AfE in clusters AA5 and AA6.

Chapter 4 provides more detail regarding the specific positioning of FLL-N in terms of the FLF and more detailed account of implementation design issues. The FLF in perspective. It is however, also important to avoid confusing specific applications with the more general attributes of both the FLF and its component parts.

At least four points are worth raising in this regard. The former is a lived activity and a capability while the latter is a spe- cific research tool for exploring FL. In other words, processes for creating knowledge are essential for anticipatory activities and therefore constitute an axis of the FLF, but although it may seem obvious it is important to keep in mind that knowledge is generated in many other contexts and for many other reasons.

Third, collective intelligence knowledge creation CIKC processes are a sub- set of KCP but are also a general-purpose tool for sensing and making-sense of many forms of both specificity and emergence, including learning. CIKC, as aSensing and making-sense of FL 41 distinct set of theories and practices, is similar in nature to a trans-disciplinary field like statistics that enables humans to define, detect and make sense of spe- cific phenomenon as well as invent the tools like surveys that make something that is imperceptible, like the average height of the population or Gross National Product, perceptible.

Fourth, it is critical to note that there are plenty of examples of efforts to think about the future that are not based on an FLL methodology but that can be mapped onto the FLF framework. Such methods can be identified fairly easily on the basis of the AA that define the method. In most cases this large panoply of FS tools was not conceived of or designed to reveal AA but rather to explore specific futures.

Using the FLF to gain a better analytical grasp of the kinds of AS and KCP con- nected with these tools is a significant step on the road to being able to anchor the matching of tools to tasks on the basis of an underlying theoretical framework.

This is the topic of the next sub-section. The main point is that the FLF, as a way of describing FL as a capability, can be used for two purposes: 1 to be more analytically precise about FS theory and practice, and 2 to identify potential directions for the development of FS theory and practice.

For instance, Figure 1. This is depicted on the far right of Figure 1. The attributes of FL as displayed by Figure 1. The point here is not to argue that FS should expand to encompass non- conscious anticipation. The aim here is more neutral and analytical. The hope is to offer a framework for thinking about the application and evolution of FS as a field of knowledge.

FS could use the FLF to gain a better understanding of how to match specific tools to specific tasks or to expand or contract or shift the focus of FS to cover different issues and points-of-view as theories change and practices adapt.

In particular, mainstream FS offers insights into different descriptive labels that can be meaningfully attached to different AA, and methods for imag- ining the future that can inspire the discovery and invention of AA. FS brings a large inventory of theories and practices related to human use-of-the-future. All these theories and methods can be deployed in the different clusters of AA depending on the context and can be used to describe different aspects of FL.

Up until now most of the academic literature and actual practices in the field of FS have not been able to take advantage of a common analytical vocabulary or shared points-of-reference like AA. This lack of a shared terrain for initiating and connecting collaborative scientific inquiry and application is in some ways not surprising given the weak and largely peripheral position of FS.

On the contrary, the aim is to encourage the development of FS by enabling deeper and wider research and application through traditional scientific, experimentation based methods.

Again, the adoption of a hypothesis testing approach, in the case of the work in this book at the proof-of-concept level, is not meant to suggest that FLL or FLL-Ns offer or impose some kind of procedural or methodological exclusivity. Quite the opposite, the hope is that by detailing the design principles of FLL as one general-purpose tool for experiencing AA and providing an exam- ple of a customised version, the FLL-N, researchers will be able to make their own assessments.

The vocation here is neither to be exclusive or all encompass- ing, although the premise of generating evidence related to explicit hypotheses is taken as the universal starting point for the specification and conduct of the research. The whole point of the FLF is to push the frontiers or boundaries of the understanding of anticipation, without claiming closure or exhaustivity. The status of FS as a discipline remains controversial, and the proposition that the FLF offers the prospect of disciplinarity by potentially providing FS with shared ontological and epistemological reference points, remains to be seen.

Disciplines, defined as common frameworks for pursuing research and developing practice, are not born full-grown, nor outside of a specific context. Today FS and FL are being pushed and pulled by current conditions and complex evolutionary emergence. One of the main drawbacks is that such disciplinarity can exclude alternative formulations from outside and suppress heretical ideas on the inside.

There is no denying that the claim of disciplinarity for FL as a capability based on the FLF does run the risk of exclusion, but it is a risk that needs to be assessed in context. Currently there are at least two mitigating factors that seem worth taking into consideration. First, the serious lack of scientific capacity and status with respect to understanding the nature and role of the future in theory and practice. This is a serious problem if one accepts the hypothesis that motivates the work presented in this book: that understanding anticipation better may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for reframing the relationship between human agency and complexity.

Such disputes are inherent to this kind of exercise and may seem wasteful and risky, particularly since up until now FS has been unable to forge a shared terrain. So far, the results seem positive.

Admittedly there is a risk of creating divergent, even paradigmatically distinct terrains for thinking about the future.

Yet, at this proof-of-concept stage of the research the signs remain promising. This last point merits being underscored in light of the delicate question noted above regarding both the inclusiveness of the FLF and the relationship between FS and the FLF. The selection for this project of particular theoretical, ana- lytical, and practical issues and approaches reflects the priorities of UNESCO and its partners to develop and clarify FL as a capability that may be able to contribute to human resilience.

With these objectives in mind, the research process for the UNESCO FL Project was designed to focus on the main parameters of the FLF, not to provide an inventory of all the theories and methods that fit within that framework.

The hope is that the FLF, as a collaborative work in progress, can contribute to the construction of a shared scientific foundation and that this process will not be played out as an insider—outsider game. Sensing and making-sense of FL 45 As is typical of such a scientific endeavour, the research process and findings are not necessarily the same thing, even if the tools often take on considerable prominence.

However, the topic of this research is FL as a capability. Deploying anticipatory systems and processes in order to understand FL makes disentangling the two somewhat tricky, but as elaborated in detail over the following chapters, testing the rele- vance of a framework for making sense of how people anticipate by engaging in anticipation is quite effective. In particular, there are many attributes of FL, such as those related to complexity and indeterminism, which can only be discerned by getting people to actually anticipate in different ways.

Working in this direc- tion, the research and experimentation into the FLF reported in this book confirm the critical role of advances both within and across the fields of anticipation and knowledge creation. Later chapters go into greater depth on specific topics while the case studies deliver considerable detail on what happens when designing and implementing processes to test the FLF in a range of different contexts.

Such efforts to reveal aspects of our universe are of fundamental importance and no judgment is made here one way or the other. Such an assumption also seems to be compatible with a view of creativity and unknowability that posits the potential for invention to enlarge the universe of possibilities, while forgetting may shrink it.

I want to thank Hardin for the conversation regarding this topic, but do not hold him in any way accountable for the interpretation presented here. However, this formulation can encompass rather passive forms of action, like efforts to know — which is an action that may or may not have further consequences related to reactions, like leaves falling, or choices like deciding to take an umbrella if the weather forecast predicts rain.

Indeed, work on FL not only draws atten- tion to the epistemic bias towards generalities, common denominators and scalability of much social science and everyday frames for describing the world but also calls rather directly for the recognition of knowledge creation processes KCP that can sense and make-sense of the unique, specific and ephemeral.

This suggests that the epistemologi- cal sphere also needs rebalancing, particularly if the richness of time-place specificity as an inherent part of complex emergence is to be taken into account. The ability or inability to recognise repetition is limited by what is known there location and then present and in this sense the recognition of repetition or difference is always initially limited by what is known locally — or the point of origin.

References Aaltonen, M. Marblehead: Emergent Publications. Adler, P. Archer, M. Bauman, Z. Cambridge: Polity Press. Beck, U. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Mineola: Dover. Bishop, P. Washington, DC: Social Technologies. Bourdieu, P. London: Sage. Bower, T. Boyd, E. Cagnin, C. Curry, A. Davidson, P. Should Economics Be Rigorous? Delanda, M. Ehresmann, A. Giddens, A. Godet, M. London: Economica. Sensing and making-sense of FL 47 Goffman, E.

Hassan, Z. Heidegger, M. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers. Hult, M. Inayatullah, S. Kahane, A. Kahneman, D. London: Penguin Press. Kauffman, S. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Kelley, T. New York, NY: Doubleday. Kimbell, L. Kobaysahi, S. Tokyo: Physical Society of Japan. Lakoff, G. Latour, B. Lewin, A. London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. Mao, Z. New York: Monthly Review Press. Masini, E. Toronto: Ministry of Colleges and Universities Ontario. Seville: Gemalto. Misuraca, G. Edited by Marijn Jansen and Elsa Estevez.

Montemayor, C. Mulgan, G. Nonaka, I. North, D. Nussbaum, M. Ogilvy, J. New York: Routledge, pp. Paavola, S. Berlin: De Gruyter. Popper, K. Bristol: Thoemmes Press. Robson, S. Rose, D. Sheffield: Equinox. Oxford: Permagon Press. Berlin: Springer Publishing, pp. Rossel, P. Samuelson, P. New York: McGraw-Hill. Scharmer, C. Sen, A. Slaughter, R. Sydney: Prospect Media. London: Routledge.

Indooroopilly, Queensland: Foresight International. Snowden, D. Stacey, R. Harlow: Prentice Hall. Stanford d.

Taleb, N. London: Random House. Tetlock, P. Trilling, B. Theory and Practice of Intelligent Organizations. Helsinki: Metaxis. Ulanowicz, R. Unger, R. Van der Heijden, K.

Wack, P. Wadsworth, B. New York: McKay. Wang, S. Wegner, E. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Wendt, A. Wilenius, M. Fruitful initial answers have been provided by what have now become classics of the field, such as the pio- neering Art of Conjecture by De Jouvenel or the extensive Foundations of Future Studies by Bell Poli provides a more detailed reconstruction of the field. More recently a series of five workshops, called the Futures Meeting FuMee, used the European COST initiative on foresight methodologies as a springboard for research into the founding principles, cross-cutting foundations and key concepts that define the evolving field of Futures Studies see Miller and Poli, for papers published from the first FuMee.

A recent issue of On the Horizon Poli, , p. Most recently research into anticipation as a concept that is relevant across a wide range of fields has taken off through a newly established series of interna- tional conferences and a Handbook of Anticipation edited by Poli The first International Anticipation Conference took place at the University of Trento in Project Anticipation, and the second one took place in London in November Anticipation , The analysis presented in this chapter reflects the discussions and debates that have been underway for almost a decade now, involving a number of other col- leagues, particularly the members of the FuMee Steering Committee The FuMee Network, The discussion of the Discipline of Anticipation DoA proposed in this chapter starts from the proposition that any effort to straightjacket FS into the boundaries of a single discipline will fail to capture the diversity of the field.

Equally the future is incorporated into all phenomena, conscious or unconscious, physical or ideational, as anticipation. One important rationale for investing in the DoA is that it may improve the conscious use of the future in the present Rossel, This rationale takes as its starting point the contention that perfect anticipation of change is both practically and theoretically not achievable in our universe. This is where the DoA has a particularly important contribution to make.

Specifically, the DoA provides ideas and tools that can alter and expand the role of anticipation in shaping what humans perceive, including our capacity to make sense of novelty. This is because the theory and practice of the DoA devel- ops and extends the categories and methods of anticipation that can be used to improve discovery and sense making. By enlarging and enhancing the analytical and operational approaches to incorporating the later-than-now into our thinking the DoA can improve anticipatory capacities in a wide range of circumstances.

Subsequently, as the reach and refinement of the discipline benefits from more reflection and purposeful experimentation it may help to create the conditions for other novel changes.

In this respect, the DoA is like other disciplines; it is an effort to develop a fuller classification of various types of anticipation and a more systematic inventory of the ways in which anticipation is understood by different sciences and disciplines in the service of human knowledge.

Like all such efforts to gain a better understanding of a subject there is no assurance that the knowl- edge so acquired will of necessity serve good or ill, nor generate only intended consequences. While anticipation has been widely studied within a number of different disciplines — including biology, anthropology, cognitive and social sciences — to date nobody has collected and systematically compared the results.

A prelimi- nary survey by Poli and a bibliography by Nadin signal the scale of the task. So far two figures stand out as central contributors to the Discipline of Anticipation: the mathematical biologist Robert Rosen , and the anthropologist John W. Bennett The former established the theory of anticipatory systems, the latter the connection between anticipation and resilience. The issue of anticipation is presently a hot topic. Not surprisingly, from the point of view of FS and the DoA, the primary focus of attention falls on explicit anticipation as a combination of capacities that allow human beings to consider and evaluate the present in light of the way they imag- ine the future.

In this sense, explicit anticipation individual and collective can be considered a key element or contributor to the human activity of decision-making. Anticipatory activities play a key role in both the search for available choices in the present and the form of agency in which such choices are conceived and eventually acted upon. One use of anticipation is as a means to imagine how actions might play out in the future, although such simulations can only be tested once future realities happen.

Simulations of this kind can be useful to think about the consequences of decisions, including errors that could turn out to be irrevocable. Clearly it calls attention to the potentially unforgiving nature of reality and the costs arising from what may turn out to be wrong decisions, either in the short or the longer term. But excessive fear of actual error, the desire to always be so well prepared, so perfectly planned, that the target is never under- or over-shot, can crowd out one of the other strands of anticipation, learning from failed or mistaken experiments by reconsidering the anticipatory assumptions that help us make sense and evaluate the present.

This strand of anticipation can be obscured when we lose sight of the fact that conscious efforts to prepare for the future or shape it are but part of a larger mix of elements that make up difference and repetition in the emergent present, including novelty that cannot be known in advance. The importance of the DoA may well be that it enables a more explicit and considered approach to these two strands of anticipation — bringing additional perspectives and systematic knowledge, not only to efforts at preparing for exter- nal events that are assumed to be predictable and to planning that aims to achieve specific goals in the future, but also to the less familiar challenge of grasping the meaning of what may look like a failed experiment yet turns out to be an emergent success when judged against a new framework.

One may be thought of as con- scious anticipation that addresses closed systems and the other anticipation that addresses open systems, as discussed in Chapter 1 with respect to Anticipation for the Future AfF and Anticipation for Emergence AfE see also Ogilvy, ; Miller, a.

In conclusion to this section it is worth noting that much of our understand- ing of anticipation remains cursory and fragmentary. Yet even if this leads us to refrain at this point from making strong or general claims regarding the nature and role of the DoA it seems fair to note that anticipation does play a basic role in many different fields from biology, sociology, and economics to medicine and architecture, and politics. Disciplinarity Human efforts to appreciate the nature and functioning of anticipation in the world around us are undertaken on the basis of specific concepts and practices, either tacit or explicit.

This is the field of knowledge that explores, invents, accumulates, and transmits the frameworks and information that make up our understanding and experience of anticipation. The Discipline of Anticipation 55 As a field of knowledge, the DoA can be sustained and improved through scientific effort.

Like similar fields of practice and theory of knowledge, such as economics or sociology but also more applied crafts, the field of knowledge provides specific ways of knowing-describing-understanding such activities. Anticipation is pervasive, but there are specific anticipatory processes that can be identified, used, and made the subject of hypothesis testing through exper- imentation and analytical efforts.

A better understanding of different forms of anticipation is helpful for engaging in economic and sociological analysis, just as theories and practices that help to understand economic and sociological phenom- ena can clarify aspects of anticipation. The DoA, like other fields of knowledge, has sub-fields and a history and weighting of different sub-fields.

Additionally, certain sub-fields are more pre- ponderant in other fields of knowledge, such as forecasting in economics or climate science. Also, as with the emergence of other fields of knowledge, his- torical context matters.

In the case of DoA a series of factors have served to both push and pull and enable and demand the development of a more sophisticated body of knowledge.

For example, a push might be complexity theory offering new tools for thinking about the future, while a pull might be practical efforts to solve the problems presented by changes in the condition of change by inventing new approaches and frameworks.

Apart from the content side to which we shall soon return , a complemen- tary way to characterize the DoA is to take into consideration the accountability criteria that its practitioners should follow. FS is inclusive. Some components of FS are more subject than others to constraints, however. In particular, futures exercises conducted by professionals and futures teaching require forms of accountability that may be inappropriate for the field of FS as a whole — such as responsibility toward clients and students, and basic research.

We shall adopt the expression DoA for this sub-field of FS. Two further demarcations help in distinguishing different versions of the DoA, or differently nuanced DoAs. First, the needs of professionals and aca- demics may differ, in part, and respond to different accountability criteria. Second, two preponderant foci can be distinguished when looking across current theory and practice within the DoA.

While these terms do not fully capture all the nuances of FS as practice, in particular the nature and range of open futures, the current discourse falls roughly into these two camps. Much forecasting practice rests on the well-established modelling approach that tests predictive hypotheses using past data.

If the model and data are deemed to accurately describe past behaviour of the variable s being predicted the model is considered more or less robust for extrapolatory purposes. Economic and cli- mate change forecasts work along these lines. Sophisticated forecasters, working within the carefully developed and tested closed models used for extrapolation of variance, can find ways to integrate advanced systems theory into their reasoning and conclusions — together with the implied issues of multi-stability, discontinu- ity, phase transitions, etc.

These simulations however, circumscribe the imaginary future within the probabilistic premises required to use models to project the past into the future. Foresight as a practice, when distinguished from forecasting, is formally prem- ised on the unknowability of the future and hence attempts to be more systematic in imagining futures that are not constrained by projecting the past. This does not mean that foresight practitioners do not use extrapolation and models to imag- ine the future.

Indeed, they can use probabilistic statements as spring-boards for imagining the future and can even, in certain circumstances, aim to provide a probabilistic assessment of the future. Foresight processes however, usually take a different path from that of the forecaster. In general, foresight claims both a more creative and participatory mission, aimed at discovering new options and exploiting different forms of knowledge.

As a result, foresight as a practice has experimented, somewhat haphazardly as is to be expected at the outset of new frameworks, with the challenge of both inventing and making sense of numerous new methods for generating and interpreting anticipatory assumptions and imagi- nary futures Bishop, Hines and Collins, ; Wilkinson, ; Rossel, Given the divergent priorities of these two groups of practitioners it is not surprising that there has been relatively little cross-fertilization or joint efforts.

Overcoming this divide could be quite productive since there are numerous issues such as Futures Literacy and complexity see section on complexity below that are of relevance to both groups. Deciding whether the DoA, as we see it, is a discipline and what makes us think so and with what degree of legitimacy, is a challenging task.

As an initial contribu- tion, the following section addresses three questions:The Discipline of Anticipation 57 1 What is a discipline, what do we mean by that? What would qualify it for that claim?

The DoA is a discipline precisely because it has its own territory of knowl- edge the future, or better, the future-as-linked-to-the-present. The disciplinarity of the DoA includes both the clarification of the relevant models, procedures and issues — which to some extent may overlap with those of FS and eventually with those of other disciplines too — and the criteria of accountability mentioned above. If we push this proposition further, we must specify the knowledge territory addressed by a discipline and the ways to address this knowledge territory.

The following are some general features we are aware of that are presented by most if not all the disciplines. Clarifying the foci of interest is more relevant than establishing clear-cut boundaries, because the latter can overlap with an endless number of other disciplines. Furthermore, the process itself of generating traces is valuable and enables different learning dynamics to be distinguished and addressed.

The habit of referencing the work of others upon which, or in contrast to which, one attempts to build new knowledge is considered a fair code of conduct. Two sets of criteria apply: 1 standard practices for complying with scientific debating and evaluation patterns; and 2 practices specific to the discipline, to be identified and discussed within the DoA arena, and related to the par- ticular issues and challenges of the DoA.

This is perhaps the most demanding aspect, in part because there are at least two relevant paradigms. Taking the dominant view of the relationship between prediction and agency, embodied in planning, there is a dual problem for assessing the performance of foresight activities: 1 strictly speaking there are no current data about the future and therefore evaluations58 Riel Miller et al.

An alternative paradigm for evaluation starts from a differ- ent conception of the use of the future and its relationship to agency. This might be called the anti-planning paradigm. Here the evaluation of anticipa- tory activity is not related to plan fulfilment or the accuracy of predictions in divining outcomes. Instead success is based on the constant diversification of imagined futures, including non-predictive and non-normative descriptions of tomorrow, with the outcome being the expansion of sensing and sense- making in the present.

Despite, or perhaps because of these difficulties in assessing foresight practice, the DoA may offer a number of solutions by enhancing the viability of input-based assessment, checking to see if the ingredients and processes respect state-of-the-art knowledge.

Key theoretical components of the DoA As with every other discipline, the DoA exploits a variety of methods. This chap- ter, however, intentionally leaves aside discussion of these diverse methods in order to remain focused on the meta-level disciplinary aspects.

In other words, we are concerned with how our understanding of the functioning of the disci- pline can be organized. Here, as a preliminary proposition, we present two ways of understanding how the DoA is organized, namely Futures Literacy FL and complexity.

Futures Literacy Skipping over the history of anticipatory thinking, the current situation is one where the capacity to understand anticipation is becoming both more operation- ally doable and desirable.

The emergence of this capacity, in a way that may be compared to the push and pull of the emergence of the universal capability to read and write during the industrial revolution, can be called Futures Literacy FL Miller, , , b, As with reading and writing, FL entails the capacity to decipher and categorize as well as produce design, conduct and interpret explicit volitional and intentional processes of anticipatory knowledge creation, as a necessary and ordinary skill.

FL, like language literacy, involves the acquisition of the know-what, know-how, know-who and know-why — to which we could also add problems of know-when — that are required to deploy anticipa- tory systems appropriately — i. The future asThe Discipline of Anticipation 59 anticipation however, is continuously instrumentalized; the point of this phrase is to draw attention to this common and important activity.

At a general level, conscious human anticipatory activities, either explicit or implicit, are a way of generating the imaginary futures needed to understand and act in the present.

Concerning explicit anticipation, three main uses can be dis- tinguished: optimization, contingency, and novelty.


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